A Full History Proportional Hazards Model for Preventive Maintenance Scheduling

This paper is concerned with the development of a realistic preventive maintenance (PM) scheduling model. A heuristic approach for implementing the semi-parametric proportional-hazards model (PHM) to schedule the next preventive maintenance interval on the basis of the equipment’s full condition history is introduced. This heuristic can be used with repairable systems and does not require the unrealistic assumption of renewal during repair, or even during PM. Two PHMs are fitted, for the life of equipment following corrective work and the life of equipment following PM, using appropriate explanatory variables. These models are then used within a simulation framework to schedule the next preventive maintenance interval. Optimal PM schedules are estimated using two different criteria, namely maximizing availability over a single PM interval and over a fixed horizon. History data from a set of four pumps operating in a continuous process industry is also used to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results indicate a higher availability for the recommended schedule than the availability resulting from applying the optimal PM intervals as suggested by using the conventional stationary models.  1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.